About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement When NASCAR decided to abandon its win-and-in, elimination-style playoff format and bring back the postseason Chase after a 12-year hiatus , this is what it was hoping for.
After a chaotic day at Phoenix Raceway , there's seven drivers who have legitimate shots at winning the championship with three races to go.
The Freeway Insurance 500 saw points leader Kyle Larson struggle all day before crashing out with 29 laps to go, regular-season champion Denny Hamlin grapple with a blown tire and a pit road penalty, and Tyler Reddick win for the first time since April. Meanwhile, other Chase contenders like Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney had solid performances to make up ground on Larson in the standings.
Every Chase driver gained points on Larson at Phoenix. His 49-point lead over Hamlin shrunk to a five-point edge over now second-place driver Christopher Bell. In all, six drivers are within 56 points of Larson.
Now, NASCAR heads to Talladega Superspeedway , arguably the most unpredictable track on the circuit. The 2.66-mile asphalt tri-oval opened in 1969 and is known for high speeds and big wrecks .
Oct. 11: Chase Briscoe celebrates in victory lane after winning the Bank of America 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images) Oct. 4: Chase Briscoe celebrates in victory lane after winning the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) Sept. 27: Kyle Larson celebrates winning the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) Sept. 19: Joey Logano celebrates after winning the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. (Randy Sartin, Imagn Images) Sept. 13: Kyle Larson celebrates in victory lane after winning the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway in Madison, Illinois. (Amy Kontras, Getty Images) Sept. 6: Christopher Bell celebrates in victory lane after winning the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina. (Meg Oliphant, Getty Images) Aug. 29: Ryan Preece (60) lifts the winner's trophy after winning the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. (Mike Watters, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) Aug. 23: Team Penske driver Ryan Blaney celebrates winning the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. (Eric Canha, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) Aug. 15: Joey Logano celebrates after winning the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway. (Greg Atkins, Imagn Images) Aug. 9: Ty Gibbs celebrates in victory lane after winning the Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol at Iowa Speedway in Newton, Iowa. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) July 26: Corey Heim celebrates after winning the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. (Grace Hollars, IndyStar, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co) July 19: Joey Logano celebrates in victory lane after winning the Window World 450 at North Wilkesboro Speedway in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina. (Meg Oliphant, Getty Images) July 12: Ryan Blaney celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart at EchoPark Speedway in Hampton, Georgia. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) July 5: Chase Briscoe reacts in victory lane after winning the eero 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. (Mike Dinovo, Imagn Images) June 28: Shane van Gisbergen celebrates after winning the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on the road course at Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, California. (Stan Szeto, Imagn Images) June 21: Corey Heim celebrates after winning the inaugural Anduril 250 at Naval Base Coronado near San Diego, California. (Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images) June 14: Denny Hamlin celebrates in victory lane after winning the Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, Pennsylvania. (David Jensen, Getty Images) June 7: Denny Hamlin celebrates in victory lane after winning the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, Michigan. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) May 31:Denny Hamlin celebrates winning the Cracker Barrel 400 at Nashville Superspeedway in Lebanon, Tennessee. (Andrew Nelles, The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network) May 24: Daniel Suarez celebrates in victory lane after winning the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway Concord, North Carolina. (Krista Jasso, Getty Images) May 10: Shane Van Gisbergen celebrates with the trophy after winning the Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International in Watkins Glen, New York. (Matthew O'Haren, Imagn Images) May 3: Chase Elliott (9) celebrates in victory lane after winning the Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas. (Jerome Miron, Imagn Images) April 26: Carson Hocevar celebrates in victory lane after winning the Jack Link's 500 at Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, Alabama. (David Jensen, Getty Images) April 19: Tyler Reddick celebrates with his wife, Alexa De Leon, and sons, Beau Reddick and Rookie George Reddick, after winning the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas. (David Jensen, Getty Images) April 12: Ty Gibbs celebrates in victory lane after winning the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee. (Matt Kelley, Getty Images) March 29: Chase Elliott celebrates with Martinsville Speedway's traditional grandfather clock prize after winning the Cook Out 400 in Martinsville, Virginia. (Jim Dedmon, Imagn Images) March 22: Tyler Reddick celebrates with his family after winning the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina for his fourth victory of the 2026 season. (Scott Kinser, Imagn Images) March 15: Denny Hamlin celebrates winning the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. (Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images) March 8: Ryan Blaney celebrates winning the Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway. (Meg Oliphant, Getty Images) March 1: Tyler Reddick celebrates winning the DuraMax Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne at Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas. (Logan Riely, Getty Images) Feb. 22: Tyler Reddick celebrates winning the Autotrader 400 at EchoPark Speedway in Hampton, Georgia. (Mady Mertens, Imagn Images) Feb. 15: Tyler Reddick celebrates with his family and crew after winning the 68th running of the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. (Mike Watters, Imagn Images) 1 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Oct. 11: Chase Briscoe celebrates in victory lane after winning the Bank of America 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images) 1 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Oct. 11: Chase Briscoe celebrates in victory lane after winning the Bank of America 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images) 2 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Oct. 4: Chase Briscoe celebrates in victory lane after winning the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) 3 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Sept. 27: Kyle Larson celebrates winning the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) 4 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Sept. 19: Joey Logano celebrates after winning the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. (Randy Sartin, Imagn Images) 5 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Sept. 13: Kyle Larson celebrates in victory lane after winning the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway in Madison, Illinois. (Amy Kontras, Getty Images) 6 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Sept. 6: Christopher Bell celebrates in victory lane after winning the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina. (Meg Oliphant, Getty Images) 7 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Aug. 29: Ryan Preece (60) lifts the winner's trophy after winning the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway. (Mike Watters, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) 8 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Aug. 23: Team Penske driver Ryan Blaney celebrates winning the Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. (Eric Canha, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) 9 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Aug. 15: Joey Logano celebrates after winning the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway. (Greg Atkins, Imagn Images) 10 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Aug. 9: Ty Gibbs celebrates in victory lane after winning the Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol at Iowa Speedway in Newton, Iowa. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) 11 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners July 26: Corey Heim celebrates after winning the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. (Grace Hollars, IndyStar, USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co) 12 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners July 19: Joey Logano celebrates in victory lane after winning the Window World 450 at North Wilkesboro Speedway in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina. (Meg Oliphant, Getty Images) 13 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners July 12: Ryan Blaney celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart at EchoPark Speedway in Hampton, Georgia. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) 14 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners July 5: Chase Briscoe reacts in victory lane after winning the eero 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. (Mike Dinovo, Imagn Images) 15 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners June 28: Shane van Gisbergen celebrates after winning the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on the road course at Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, California. (Stan Szeto, Imagn Images) 16 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners June 21: Corey Heim celebrates after winning the inaugural Anduril 250 at Naval Base Coronado near San Diego, California. (Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images) 17 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners June 14: Denny Hamlin celebrates in victory lane after winning the Great American Getaway 400 presented by VISITPA at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, Pennsylvania. (David Jensen, Getty Images) 18 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners June 7: Denny Hamlin celebrates in victory lane after winning the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, Michigan. (Sean Gardner, Getty Images) 19 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners May 31:Denny Hamlin celebrates winning the Cracker Barrel 400 at Nashville Superspeedway in Lebanon, Tennessee. (Andrew Nelles, The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network) 20 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners May 24: Daniel Suarez celebrates in victory lane after winning the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway Concord, North Carolina. (Krista Jasso, Getty Images) 21 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners May 10: Shane Van Gisbergen celebrates with the trophy after winning the Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International in Watkins Glen, New York. (Matthew O'Haren, Imagn Images) 22 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners May 3: Chase Elliott (9) celebrates in victory lane after winning the Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas. (Jerome Miron, Imagn Images) 23 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners April 26: Carson Hocevar celebrates in victory lane after winning the Jack Link's 500 at Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, Alabama. (David Jensen, Getty Images) 24 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners April 19: Tyler Reddick celebrates with his wife, Alexa De Leon, and sons, Beau Reddick and Rookie George Reddick, after winning the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas. (David Jensen, Getty Images) 25 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners April 12: Ty Gibbs celebrates in victory lane after winning the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee. (Matt Kelley, Getty Images) 26 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners March 29: Chase Elliott celebrates with Martinsville Speedway's traditional grandfather clock prize after winning the Cook Out 400 in Martinsville, Virginia. (Jim Dedmon, Imagn Images) 27 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners March 22: Tyler Reddick celebrates with his family after winning the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina for his fourth victory of the 2026 season. (Scott Kinser, Imagn Images) 28 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners March 15: Denny Hamlin celebrates winning the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. (Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images) 29 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners March 8: Ryan Blaney celebrates winning the Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway. (Meg Oliphant, Getty Images) 30 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners March 1: Tyler Reddick celebrates winning the DuraMax Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne at Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas. (Logan Riely, Getty Images) 31 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Feb. 22: Tyler Reddick celebrates winning the Autotrader 400 at EchoPark Speedway in Hampton, Georgia. (Mady Mertens, Imagn Images) 32 / 32 See victory lane celebrations with 2026 NASCAR race winners Feb. 15: Tyler Reddick celebrates with his family and crew after winning the 68th running of the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. (Mike Watters, Imagn Images) "I think the word is pressure. It's just at another level," NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Jarrett told USA TODAY Sports about the championship battle. "I mean, there's always been pressure, but I think this Chase has brought another meaning to that word."
Jarrett's USA Network colleague Leigh Diffey loves the storylines that the Chase has produced.
"Can anybody catch Larson? What's Denny going to do? Is Blaney going to have this massive comeback? What about Joey? What about Chase Briscoe? It's all positive," Diffey said.
While Talladega is difficult to forecast, a handful of active Chase drivers have won there, including Hamlin, Logano, Blaney and Reddick. NASCAR then heads to Martinsville Speedway – where Hamlin has won six times – for the penultimate race of the season before finishing up at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where Larson has won twice in the last four seasons.
With three races remaining, USA TODAY Sports presents tier rankings for each of the 16 drivers' chances to win the Chase:
▶ Daniel Suarez, Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece, William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Carson Hocevar, Chase Elliott
Wallace had a chance to graduate out of this tier and give himself a fighting chance heading into Talladega. He took the lead from Logano and led 52 consecutive laps at Phoenix before being hit with a speeding penalty on pit road after Larson blew his tire. Wallace had to drop back in the field and finished 17th. His race at Phoenix was the epitome of what the entire season has been like for the No. 23 Toyota. Wallace has had fast cars, but strong races for him have been plagued by mistakes, mechanical issues or getting caught up in someone else's wreck.
While Hocevar won the spring race at Talladega , he, along with the other drivers listed here, simply haven't displayed the consistency required to make a run with three races to go.
For either of these drivers to be in the mix by the time the race at Homestead arrives, they probably need to win at Talladega and Martinsville and hope that guys like Larson and Hamlin keep having bad days.
Cindric has had three top-10 finishes in the Chase, and Talladega is typically a good track for him. He won there last year and finished eighth at the superspeedway in the fall. Martinsville is another solid venue for the No. 2 Ford, with finishes of fourth, eighth and ninth over the last four seasons.
Superspeedways have been difficult for Gibbs in his budding Cup Series career, but he did finish third at Talladega last fall. Short tracks is where he has excelled, winning at Bristol and Iowa this season while finishing fourth at Martinsville in the spring.
▶ Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney
Reddick won five of the first nine races of the season, went through a long slog of rough races, then finally found his way back into victory lane at Phoenix. Now, with three races to go, he's back in the championship hunt. Ahead for Reddick are two tracks where he has wins in the Next Gen car — Talladega and Homestead. While Martinsville hasn't been a great track for Reddick, 23XI Racing seems to be making some strides when it comes to their short track performances.
For Logano and Blaney, the next two tracks are ones that have been strong for Team Penske Fords. In his last nine trips to Martinsville, Blaney has a pair of wins and an average finish of 4.4. Talladega hasn't been as strong for the No. 12, but Blaney did win there in 2023. Blaney also has three top-five finishes at Homestead.
Logano has been the king of short tracks in the second half of the season, winning at North Wilkesboro , Richmond and Bristol, while also winning the first two stages at Phoenix. Logano has an average finish of 5.5 over his last 13 trips to Martinsville and he has three career wins at Talladega. He last won at Homestead in 2018.
▶ Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin
Through the first six races in the Chase, Larson looked like the best driver on the planet, winning a pair of races and posting an average finish of 2.8. Everything was going right for the No. 5 Chevrolet, and then everything went very wrong at Phoenix where he notched a DNF after blowing a tire and crashing into the outside wall late in the race.
Still, Larson has a slim lead atop the leaderboard over Bell, who has been consistent all year long despite not winning all that much. Bell's lone win came in the Chase opener at Darlington, and he's finished runner-up eight times this season. The only driver with more top-five finishes than Bell this season is his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Hamlin.
The oldest active driver in the Cup Series, Hamlin is still seeking his first championship and was the favorite when the Chase began. But the regular-season champion has run into some bad luck. He finished 18th at Darlington, spun out and damaged his car at Las Vegas, then blew a tire and suffered a speeding penalty at Phoenix. Through seven Chase races, Hamlin has an average finish of 12.4 – which simply won't be good enough to win a championship. On the bright side for Hamlin, he's won twice at Talladega, has six wins at Martinsville, and Homestead has been a solid track for his No. 11 Toyota. If there was ever a time for Hamlin to turn it on, it's now.
And then there's Chase Briscoe – winner of two Chase races, taking checkered flags at Las Vegas and Charlotte . There aren't any more traditional mile-and-a-half tracks left for Briscoe to ace – Homestead is a bit of a unique beast – but the tracks ahead could bode well for the No. 19 Toyota. Briscoe won the fall race at Talladega last season, his short track racing has improved lately with top-three finishes at North Wilkesboro and Richmond, and he ran fourth at Homestead last year.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who has best chance to win 2026 NASCAR title? Taking stock of The Chase
Source: Sports
