PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 3: Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins skates with the puck in the third period during the game against the Montreal Canadiens at PPG PAINTS Arena on October 3, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) | Getty Images Adam Gretz Tue, October 20, 2026 at 4:54 PM UTC · 9 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement As much as we try, it can be tough to get a read on a team, good or bad, after the first handful of games to a season. You probably need to see at least 20 or 25 games before you start to get a true sense for how good or bad a team really is. But breaking a season down into 10-game segments can be a pretty good barometer for how a team is playing during a certain stretch, and if any trends (good or bad) are starting to emerge.
After the first 10 games you can at least start to pick out some thing that are either encouraging or a warning sign.
With the 2026-27 Penguins, there are a lot of warning signs.
So much so, that if things do not start to trend in a different direction very soon it might be time to start asking if this is the year things really do bottom out for them.
We will do a progress report after every 10-game stretch to see where the team is, and how it is progressing.
This is the first of those progress reports.
Ten-game record: 3-6-1 (7 points, 14th in Eastern Conference, 27th in NHL)
Goals against per game: 3.70 (27th in NHL)
Expected Goals For Per 60 minutes (5-on-5): 3.o7 (6th in NHL)
Expected Goals Against Per 60 minutes (5-on-5): 2.53 (17th in NHL)
Expected Goals Share (5-on-5): 54.8 percent (7th in NHL)
All-Situations Save Percentage: .867 (25th in NHL)
Goals Saved Above Expected (all situations): minus-2.5
There is an argument to be made the Penguins have been a little unlucky offensively, at least based on the number of chances they've generated. And honestly, I think that passes the eye test as well. The offensive slump after the first two games largely comes down to 1) the power play being a mess until Monday's game in Utah, and 2) not enough finishing.
I still believe in the offense, and I really haven't seen anything to suggest it can't still be a good offensive team. There is enough forward talent there to score goals and I have to imagine some of these guys (looking at you, Rickard Rakell) are going to find the net eventually.
The bigger problem, as we should have probably feared, is everything regarding this team's play defensively.
The biggest wild-card with them was always going to be what the goalies do. Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov were either going to do enough to cover up their defensive flaws and help them get to the playoffs, or they were going to struggle behind a sub-par defense and help send them to the lottery.
While I'm not going to put all of the goals against numbers on them, I don't think it's unfair to say that they haven't consistently bailed them out (Sergei Murashov's game in Columbus being the obvious exception to that).
Don't take that as too much of a criticism. Because it's not meant to be.
There is only so much a goalie can do, and there's only so much expectation you can have for duo that includes a rookie goalie as one half of it, and a guy that probably projects as more of a backup than a starter as the other half of it. It's just simply a statement of fact: That was one of the wild-card things that needed to go their way, and so far, it is has not played out that way.
The bigger issue is everything else regarding the team defensively, and it's something everybody has to own.
The thing about the defensive struggles that are especially maddening is it's not always a constant problem.
In terms of VOLUME, the chances against are not anything outrageous. It's not great, but it's not as bad as it could be, or as bad as some other teams in the NHL.
The problem is that when the mistakes and breakdowns DO happen, they are cataclysmic. Like, complete, system-wide break downs involving everybody on the ice that just shouldn't be happening.
When they screw up, they get their money's worth out of it.
I admit, I kind of liked this defense on paper, at least compared to last year's group, but the early returns so far have not been good. They don't exit the zone well, they don't defend zone entries well, and they spend too much time chasing the puck in their own zone. It is a disruption to everything in all three zones. Add in some poor support from the forwards and you've got a team that has allowed way too many goals, in way too few games.
1. You might not be able to clinch a playoff spot in October, but you can play your way out of it. The Penguins gave themselves a cushion early in the 2025-26 season by banking a lot of early points and starting off 7-2-1 through 10 games.
They are doing the opposite this season and putting themselves into an early season hole that, historically, is tough to climb out of.
In the salary cap era there have been 112 teams that won three games or less over the first 10 games of a season.
Only six teams have done it since the start of the 2016-17 season.
Only two have done it since the start of the 2021-22 season: The 2025-26 Minnesota Wild (3-5-2) and the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers (2-7-1).
So … that is what you are looking at here.
2. Perhaps the most eye-opening part of this 10-game stretch is that the Penguins played three straight games against legitimate contenders in Colorado, Vegas and Utah and were outscored 16-8 in those games. There's a bit of a gap here, obviously.
3. Along those lines, if you are in the group of fans that thinks the Penguins might need to bottom out for a year and get a top pick, you might get your wish this season. At least as long as the defensive effort and goaltending keeps doing what they have over the first 10 games. There's still 74 games remaining. There's a lot of time for things to change. They've played a pretty tough schedule so far with a lot of travel, while also having a lot of new faces thrown in together. It was never going to be perfect. But should it be as bad as it has been?
4. While nobody has been consistently good over the first 10 games the players that have stood out the most and impressed me the most have been Ben Kindel, Nicholas Robertson, the fourth line as a whole, and Sam Girard.
5. I really do not understand the Robertson usage. He is a younger player, he brings an element of speed to the lineup that a lot of the team is lacking, he is generating chances (and goals) at a rate higher than almost every other player on the team, always brings energy, and every line he has played on has been better with him on it than when he is off of it. Not only is he a guy you should want to find out about, he is also simply one of their most effective players right now.
6. I know Kindel is on a six-game point drought, but I still like his game. There needs to be reasonable expectations for 19-year-olds. Young players will struggle at times. If you want guys like him, Murashov, Ville Koivunen and whoever else is in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to get opportunities and bring some youth into the lineup, you have to be prepared for what youth sometimes does. Sometimes it struggles. Sometimes the production is not there. Part of the process.
7. Erik Karlsson's offense is still a major factor, but I feel like he's played into a lot of the puck management and defensive coverage issues that have plagued the team.
8. No forward line has been more damaging to the team's defensive efforts than the top line. It's a problem
The Penguins have had six forward line combinations play at least 25 minutes together this season.
Crosby-Rust-Rakell is the only one that is underwater in terms of expected goal share while they are fourth in actual goal-differential. In terms of goals against per 60 minutes, they are fifth. Given the number of minutes they play (literally the most minutes) they are a shocking drain defensively. What makes it even more concerning is they are getting heavy offensive zone starts and they are still ending up moving in the wrong direction.
When none of those three players are on the ice the Penguins are actually outscoring their opponents during 5-on-5 play (it is only 13-12, but still…) with a significantly better expected goal share.
If the team is going to win games this season, that can not happen. They need more, and better, from that trio. No other way to put it.
9. The only defense pairings that have even come close to being functional and produced anything close to passable results are Girard and Kaedan Korczak, and the little bit we have seen from Kris Letang and Spencer Stastney.
10. I had reasonably high hopes for Declan Carlile, and while it's too soon to give up on him (I am not), he has been a serious issue the past few games, even with the occasional goal.
[Data in this post via Natural Stat Trick , MoneyPuck and Hockey-Reference ]
Source: Sports
